What Role Players?

I'm starting to get the feeling that this NBA Finals hinges on two players:  Lebron James and Tony Parker.  Yet, this defies everything we know about how NBA Finals are won. 

It has always been the role players that make the difference in the past.  Steve Kerr, Robert Horry, Derek Fisher.  These men cemented their legacies in basketball lore as role players who came through when they were needed most. 

When the Spurs faltered in the last few playoffs it was the role players that struggled: DeJuan Blair, George Hill, Danny Green and others.  When the Celtics won their Championship in 2008 some of the biggest shots were hit by P. J. Brown and Eddie House, and Leon Powe had a huge impact.  Two years later, in the 2010 Finals, it was Nate Robinson and Big Baby that had Celtics fans planning to call in sick for the parade after Game 4, and it was Ron Artest that his the two biggest, most back-breaking shots at the end of an ugly Game 7.  Last year, Mike Miller exploded for seven 3's in Game 5 of the Finals.

This is what we relearn year after year.  We spend so much time talking about the superstars on each team and how they match up.  But the superstars are superstars because they come out and amaze, compete, and produce every single night.  They are almost givens, and it is the role players that often are the difference.  It's why experts spend so much time talking about X-Factors, as if they know who will step up. 

Yet again, with this series, I can't help but shake this feeling.  This feeling that Tony Parker and Lebron James are both playing at the highest level in their career.  Parker critics often point to his sub-par fourth quarters.  They claim he can't be trusted when the game is on the line.  They were a millisecond from being validated after he dribbled the ball off his own leg at the end of Game 1.  But that shot. 

I can't help but feel like these are two very good teams, each with their own advantages against the other based on the match ups.  I can't help but feel that each team is going to have to rely on their own Superstar heavily and with all due respect to Dwayne Wade and especially Tim Duncan, I'm not talking about them.   I can't help but feel that whichever Superstar can come through for their team in the toughest of situations, Tony Parker or Lebron, will be holding one more NBA Finals MVP trophy. 

Jerry Stackhouse and Veteran Leadership

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At the start of the second quarter in last night's Nets vs. Warriors game Jerry Stackhouse knocked down a corner 3.  That's nothing new this season.  Thirty of Stackhouse's 66 FGA so far this season have been corner 3's and he has knocked them down at a scorching53%.  As the next few possessions indicated though, knocking down the most efficient shot in basketball outside of a layup is not the only thing Old Man River, Stackhouse, is bringing to this team.

On the very next possession Stackhouse backed down second year guard Charles Jenkins, and manipulated the defense with a dribble to the baseline before firing a skip pass to a wide open Joe Johnson to knock down a three.  On the next three possessions the Nets ignored Stackhouse on offense and the Warriors went on a brief 6-0 run leading to a Nets timeout.  Coming out of the timeout the Nets put the ball in Stackhouse's hands at the top of the key and set a pick with the point guard in order to force a switch.  This led to consecutive possessions where Stackhouse knocked down an 18 foot baseline jumper off the dribble and over the smaller Jarrett Jack, followed by Stack backing Jack down, drawing the double, and hitting C. J. Watson for another wide open three.

For this particular stretch that Stackhouse was in the game, the Nets lead actually shrunk from 7 to 1 which is why individual game +/- can be such a frustratingly inaccurate stat.  However, when you increase the sample size and look at +/- numbers over the course of multiple games, the stat begins to earn credibility.  For instance, the top ten players in cumulative +/- so far this season are: Durant, Westbrook, Conley, Carmelo, Kevin Martin, Tyson Chandler, Marc Gasol, Rudy Gay, Ray Felton, and Manu Ginobili (via NBA.com).  It's no surprise that all of these players play for the best teams in the league.  Ray Felton is probably not the tenth best player in the league, but because he is playing so much with Carmelo and Tyson Chandler (who both have an enormous impact on how well the Knicks have played so far this season) his +/- is inflated.  Again, +/- is not a perfect stat, but outside of Felton it's hard to argue that any one of those other nine players has not had a massive effect on their respective teams playing well this season. 

There are two Nets in the top twenty-five in cumulative +/- so far this season.  The first is Joe Johnson (+87) and the second is Jerry Stackhouse (+84).  Stackhouse has managed to accumulate that +/- in less than half and sometimes less than a third of the amount of minutes as other guys on that list.  To be clear, this is not a plea to get Stackhouse more minutes.  As we've seen with bench players young and old before, often when you increase a player's minutes their effectiveness plummets.  Rather, I'm trying to illustrate how much of an impact Stackhouse has had on this Nets team this season. 

The downside of +/- usually is that an individual's value is often determined very much by the other four teammates he shares the floor with.  In this case, that downside is actually a benefit.  Stackhouse's veteran leadership, being a pseudo-coach-on-the-floor has helped the Brooklyn Nets bench be better, and that's probably not any more apparent than in the play of Andray Blatche.

Last night Blatche was a starter because of the injury to Brook Lopez, and he finished with 22 and 15 coming on the heels of a 19 point, 11 rebound performance against OKC.  When Brook returns, Andray will return to the bench, but that does not mean his impact with be limited.  He is averaging 11.2 ppg and 6.6 rpg with only four starts on the season.  

In my mind there's no doubt that Stackhouse has brought a level of maturity and experience to what was certainly a questionable bench coming into the season.  As we are seeing with the impact Jason Kidd has had on J. R. Smith and the Knicks, veteran leadership is always an undervalued asset by teams in the NBA. 

Genetically Engineering an NBA Front Line

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 The Bucks are the perpetual mediocre team in the NBA.  Every other city's nightmare scenario (year after year after year of late lottery picks), seems to be the Bucks rallying cry.  Their truehoop network blog, Bucksketball, uses the slogan, "8th seed or bust".  The logical move for the Bucks front office to achieve this goal of basketball mediocrity would be to surround their two young volume 

 shooters with players who will theoretically rebound and defend. 

Entering this season, I viewed the Milwaukee Bucks front line as a curiosity.  It was a collection of assorted lanky athletes.  They are almost as long as the alien team from Space Jam. Engineers would create these anatomies for a hypothetical basketball player.  A redwood forest to guard the basket and maybe obscure the fans' view of what might be some ugly offensive basketball.  No doubt Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings could score, but they both needed to score and shoot in bulk.  And so John Henson was added to this roster in the draft as if the Bucks were collecting gangly PF/C types. 

After 12 games, this Bucks front line is even more confusing.  The one player that seemed to be a lock for big minutes and contributions was the freshly paid Turkish sensation Ersan Ilyasova.  Ersan averaged 13 and almost 9 last season with 19 double doubles and some explosive rebounding performances.  It earned him his pay check, but this year he has been just plain bad.  He's only scored in double figures four times (more than 11 only once) and has one double digit rebound game.

There is also Larry Sanders.  After five games or so I started checking Milwaukee box scores to see how Sanders was doing.  He started the year in double figures scoring in the five games in a row, an exploit that seemed as unlikely as Milwaukee's championship aspirations.  He also had two double doubles over that time, before seeing his minutes dwindle as the season has progressed. 

Then, there was the 17 point, 18 rebound flare-up that John Henson had against Miami in the only game this season he saw more than fifteen minutes.  Which he followed up with a stat less forgettable night where he played one minutes against Charlotte. 

Add to the mix Samuel Dalembert, Ekpe Udoh, and even Tobias Harris and it's hard to figure out what the Bucks have on that front line.  I think Scott Skiles is thinking the same thing considering the varying amounts of minutes these guys have all seen already this season.  Typically a slow paced- defensive team under Skiles, the Bucks are currently playing at the fastest pace and are 17th in defensive efficiency (a stat their mediocre-loving fans must love).  There is some evidence that their collection of length has been effective.  They are 6th in the league in blocks,  lead the league in charges by an extremely high margin, and are tops in defensive plays (blocks+charges+steals) according to Hoopdata.  They are 21st in FG% at the rim but are 3rd in shots attempts allowed at the rim indicating their length is deterring penetration.  They also are able to force drivers to take difficult shots a bit further out then they would like holding teams to 27.8% shooting from 3-9 feet.  They rank 2nd in that category below Houston and just above the Lakers who have two top rim protectors of their own. 

So there is a method to their madness, I suppose, although the Bucks were murdered on the glass against the Bulls on Saturday night.  They are 7-5 but haven't beaten many good teams (PHI, WAS, CHI, CLE, IND, NO, and BOS who can lose on any given night against anyone).  There are a few oddities about this team though.  As I mentioned they are playing at the fastest pace in the league and are forcing turnovers at a rate that is 5th in the league.  That seems to indicate their guards are playing defense and pushing the ball.  What really makes me scratch my head though is that this team is 3rd in the league in assists behind two of the best passing teams there are: the Celtics and the Spurs.

As far as the eye test goes, it seems to me that Udoh and Sanders are their most effective defensive players.  Ersan is obviously their most effective offensive big despite his early season struggles.  Henson is still so young, and Dalembert just seems repetitive on this roster.  Their five man unit numbers from 82games seem to support this.  Their two strikingly efficient defensive units with more than 30 minutes played include both Udoh and Sanders on the floor together.  Their best offensive units include Ellis and Jennings playing with Dunleavy and/or Ilyasova.  

This isn't groundbreaking or anything, but it does support my own preconceived notions of these players.  It is likely that Skiles will continue to juggle his lineups on the front line until he finds something he likes.  The thing is, it may take most of the season for anyone of these guys to emerge and by that time Milwaukee will be right back where they started: 8th seed or bust.

How About Those Bobcats?

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If the playoffs started today, the Bobcats would be the 4 seed in the east.  For most teams, their record after 10 games is inconsequential.  That's not the case for this Bobcats team though.  This is a team that won only seven games out of 66 attempts last season.  This year they are already 6-4.  Last season, they finished the year losing 23 straight games.  They were no longer playing to win games.  It was already determined that they would lose on a night in and night out basis.  To be able to change around that mindset in one off-season is a testament to the job that Mike Dunlap has done with this team. 


When Dunlap was hired, many NBA fans, including myself, were fairly unaware of him.  Dunlap did hold the respect of many smart basketball minds on the college and professional level though.  Expectations were tempered due to the talent level on this team, but many (including the respected Kelly Dwyer) were excited to see him be able to work on the rebuilding process, particularly under the new leadership of Rich Cho.

The difference that Dunlap has made on this team already is apparent.  First, the eye test: the Bobcats are far from the last team you'd want to watch on League Pass.  That in itself is a significant development if you were unlucky enough to watch this team play at all last season.  I think 90% of my Bobcats viewing from last season came on March 4th, when Deron dropped 57 on them.  This year, there are crazy finishes, buzzer beaters, and plenty of bad eastern conference teams that Charlotte will have a chance to win against.  Wins at home against a surprising Bucks team and in Minnesota show that Charlotte can occasionally beat decent teams.  As sad as that statement may sound to some of you, it's a step in the right direction for them.

This is a team that was last in the league in both offensive and defensive rating (points per 100 possessions) last season.  This year: they are 20th and 18th respectively.  They still have many of the same weaknesses: no outside shooting, they are way too young, and they give up way too many shots at the rim on defense.  The number 2 pick helps.  Though among his many talents, Kidd-Gilchrist does not help their outside shooting or give them any more NBA experience.  Their young core looks much stronger than it did at any point last season though.  Biyombo is causing havoc on the defensive end.  Kidd-Gilchrist does so many things besides score: 6.8 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 1.4 blocks.  Kemba looks like he's on track for a breakout campaign, and even Jeff Taylor looks like a solid complementary piece.

Where they have really improved though is in their mindset.  Although it is catalyzed by Kidd-Gilchrist, that mindset comes directly from the head coach.  As Kemba Walker has pointed out, "Toughness.  I think we get that from our leader, coach Dunlap.  He's really intense and we feed off of that."

Why Mike D'Antoni Can Work for the Lakers

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After the dust has settled from this weekend's most recent NBA drama, Mike D'Antoni will likely be debuting Sunday as the coach of the Los Angeles Lakers.  D'Antoni is a more than capable NBA coach, but the reality is he is not going to change some of the problems that are inherent in the construction of this roster.

The general narrative is that Mike D'Antoni could care less about defense.  The track record of his 7 seconds or less offense show that he is certainly focused on that side of the ball but to say that he's incapable of coaching a team to even a mediocre defense is debatable.  The Def rating (which adjusts for pace) of those Phoenix Suns teams were all between 15th and 20th in the league, which indicates they were much closer to average than the worst in the league.  The fact is, D'Antoni has never coached a player with the defensive impact that Howard has on the floor.  Most coaches have not.  Although there are questionable defensive pieces all over this roster, it's not inconceivable to believe D'Antoni will have an average to above-average defense around Howard.  Pair that with what we expect to be an elite offense and the high level talent and experience this team possesses.  That's a scary playoff opponent.  Of course, this all depends on Dwight Howard and his health.

So far this season, defense has not been a strength of the Lakers, and part of that has to do with Dwight's health.  Although his numbers are strong, he has clearly not been able to move as effectively as in the past.  I do think he has improved from the start of the season to now.  In his Lakers debut, he was playing below the rim.  He was even struggling with his lift to the point where he had difficulty finishing around the basket.  He has been better lately.  Against the Spurs, he had some plays where his explosiveness on weak side defense was clear.  He is jumping higher and moving better as his back loosens up and his conditioning improves.  The last area where he will need to improve is with his lateral quickness.

The Lakers have long been terrible at defending the pick and roll.  This typically is because their point guards have been well below average on defense.  That is not going to change when Nash returns from his injury.  The other part, though, was Andrew Bynum.  Teams often attacked Bynum by having his man set the screen.  This was a way to try to get him away from the basket and open up the paint, but also because he wasn't very adept at extending his defense out far enough to help his point guard in any way.  Because of this, point guards who can penetrate have traditionally killed the Lakers over the last few years.  In the past, teams have attacked Dwight in a similar way.  Again, mainly in an attempt to get him away from the basket, but Dwight is far more agile than Bynum and in the past has been able to hedge on screen and rolls and often get back to protect the rim when need be.  This is how Jameer Nelson was a starting point guard on an elite defensive team.  A healthy Dwight can cover up for some deficiencies. His lateral quickness is not fully recovered yet and it has shown in this team's defensive performance thus far, but he is improving.

The main problems that D'Antoni will have to deal with on this roster is their lack of depth and lack of shooting.  A common criticism has been that since Pau Gasol cannot consistently shoot 3's, then there will be spacing issues in D'Antoni's system.  To me, this isn't much of a problem.  Last year Pau shot a respectable 43% from 16-23 feet, good enough for 20th in the league among players who played 30 minutes a game.  And I can imagine him playing the Boris Diaw role, catching the ball at 20 feet and being able to attack rotating defenses with the dribble and his passing skills to find Dwight on the role or shooters on the wing.  It is the shooters that are the issue.  Metta World Peace is an abomination on offense and should never take another dribble or 3 point shot as long as he lives.  Steve Blake was brought in as a bench shooter and can't knock down open shots.  Jodie Meeks should get more minutes but that would mean playing Kobe at the 3 at times.  Jamison is a career 35% 3pt shooter, hasn't shot that high since he was in Washington, and is 3-15 from 3 on the season.

This highlights the other problem: the bench.  Jamison, Blake once Nash is back, Jordan Hill, Meeks and a bunch of questionably NBA caliber guys.  These challenges are ones that Phil would have had to deal with as well.  Either way, I think we can all agree that Mike Brown wasn't the guy for this job.  He was a figurehead for Kobe to be able to manipulate and not be unhappy with as evidenced with Kobe's push for the Princeton offense.  Once this became a legitimate contender with the acquisition of Dwight, than other options should have been explored, no offense Mike Brown.  Mike D'Antoni is not that type of coach.  He is a member of the Team USA coaching staff and is respected and liked by stars throughout the league.  He demands enough respect to get Kobe to buy in and that's the first step.

The Los Angeles Clippers and Improvement From Within

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The Los Angeles Clippers played back to back nationally televised games on Wednesday and Thursday night and made a statement in doing so.  It wasn't so much that they won both games, or that they won handily against a very good San Antonio Spurs team that had rolled right through them in the playoffs last year.  What was impressive about these two wins, and what may force us to rethink this team, was the play of their supporting cast, in particular their youngsters: Eric Bledsoe and DeAndre Jordan.

I want to start with DeAndre mainly because I don't really think his play in those two games is sustainable, and that's not to say that DeAndre can't be a major contributing factor to this team getting to the next level.  In Wednesday night's game he had a good matchup against Tim Duncan.  His athletic advantage was just too much for Duncan to overcome.  He had 20 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 blocked shots on 10 of 12 shooting.  Nine of those makes were at the rim and/or dunks.  The next night in Portland he had 21 points and 8 rebounds, only 1 blocked shot, but was a surprising 5-7 from the free throw line.  Again, only one of his makes was from outside of 4 feet. 

This is what DeAndre's offensive game should be: field goal attempts at the rim.  The typical training camp optimistic stories have come out about DeAndre working on his post game, and there is no doubt he does look more comfortable in that position, but that is still not where DeAndre should be generating his offense from.  He should be offensive rebounding, getting put backs, and getting dunks either in the pick n roll or when the playmakers on this team set him up. 

Really though DeAndre's offense is all gravy.  It would help for him to be able to convert free throws at a rate acceptable enough to keep him on the floor late in close games.  Outside of that, his rebounding and defense is essential.  The Clippers were an above average rebounding team last season, but in the playoffs they were forced to play the one trick pony Reggie Evans much more than they should have been in order to stay competitive on the boards against good teams.  Without that Evans crutch this year, this team is very thin up front and DeAndre has to be able to fill that role consistently this season.  He also needs to be a compliment to Blake Griffin on defense.  Both of them need to improve defensively, but DeAndre has the skill set to become an elite defender where Blake will always be undersized.

The other half of this teams internal development is their young point guard Eric Bledsoe.  Bledsoe's play in my mind has been much more sustainable than DeAndre's so far.  The problem here is that Vinny Del Negro is struggling to find ways to get Bledsoe on the court.  The Clippers brought in Jamal Crawford to be an effective bench scorer for them.  Crawford has been brilliant, but the Clippers have been starting and giving almost 20 minutes a game to Willie Green.  When Chauncey Billups comes back he will eat even more of these minutes.  Bledsoe played only 14 minutes against the Blazers Thursday night.  He shot 3-4, scored 8 points and had two rebounds, an assist, and a steal.  On Wednesday night, in 22 minutes he had 15 points and 5 assists. 

For Bledsoe, though, the numbers do not do his play justice.  His ball pressure and defensive intensity rivals that of Chris Paul.  His aggressiveness and passing ability seems to have improved.  He is a true change of pace from Chris Paul.  His jump shot, while still inconsistent, is showing flashes of improvement and he can compromise opposing defenses with penetration at will.  Bledsoe needs to be on the floor more, and that falls on Vinny Del Negro.

The problem, as I see it here. is that I would rather rely on Bledsoe's improvement than DeAndre, but the roster is constructed in such a way that DeAndre will be more valuable.  While Blake Griffin continues to get the brunt of the criticism when this team underperforms it is the supporting cast that will take this team to another level.  DeAndre's defense, Bledsoe's minutes, the addition of Jamal Crawford and a healthy Caron Butler.  I'm not sold on this team yet, because they still strike me as very inconsistent, but I'm certainly taking notice and will be watching them closely as the season progresses.

Week 1 in the NBA: Overreactions and #Smallsamplesizetheater

The NBA is going to finish up its first weekend slate of games tonight and already so much has happened.  Obviously, on November 4th, everything written and said about the NBA has to include the caveat "it's way too early", but at what point is it alright to make judgments?  These games count as well.  We haven't "learned" anything definittive about any of these teams yet, but we can certainly start to formulate theories and make observations.

via urban_data on Flickr

 The Rockets are fun to watch

-  I was not high on the Rockets this year considering their amount of inexperience.  The James Harden trade happened last weekend and all of a sudden there was a reason to watch this team.  After his 37 point, 12 assist debut on Wednesday night, the Rockets damn near became appointment viewing.  

Omer Asik setting devastating picks for Harden and Lin in this heavy pick and roll and push the pace offense is going to be exciting.  If there were only a few shooters surrounding these two dynamic playmakers than this would probably be an elite level offense.  Beside Lin and Harden the Rockets are 13-54 (24%) from the three point line.  Patrick Patterson and Marcus Morris are significant contributors to that.  If ever a team needed a stretch four.  So expect a lot of missed three's in the half court set when Lin and Harden don't get to the basket, but in transition this team is fantastic and keeping Harden away from the hoop will be difficult.  Through 3 games Harden has already taken 31 shots at the basket or inside the restricted circle and that's not including shots he was fouled on (33FTA already).

Asik has terrible hands but will frustrate opposing big men and rebound, but we already knew that.

Twitter Explosion in Milwaukee

- Saturday night, when I finished at work I checked in on Twitter to see what was happening.  The Cavs-Bucks game was drawing to a close and Kyrie and Jennings were obviously getting love.  A league pass game if there ever was one, turned out to have one of the most exciting finishes of the night.  Kyrie has done nothing to quell the high expectations thus far, but what really caught my eye in the box score was Brandon Jennings.  

Unfortunately, I watched the Bucks-Celtics game from Friday night as well as he arguably outplayed Rajon Rondo.  #Smallsamplesizetheater, Brandon Jennings is averaging 13 assists per game.  A career 5.5 APG player who has only had double digit assists 13 times in 209 starts before this season.  It's obviously unsustainable, but what if Jennings replaces three ill-advised long jumpers with 3 assists on a per game basis?  Is that really an unrealistic projection?  We all assumed that his contract season would mean he'd be gunning for scoring totals, but what if he improves his game in other areas?  Wouldn't that still mean a bigger paycheck?  Here is the "it's way too early" caveat, but it's something to keep an eye on moving forward.

Contract Extensions

-  The general narrative is that Harden (5 yrs, $80 million) is a worthy building block for Houston.  Denver and Golden State were smart to extend Lawson (4yrs, $48 million) and Curry (4yrs,$44 million). Taj Gibson was a bit overpaid (4yrs, $38 million), but necessary for the Bulls after Asik left.  Jrue Holiday received mixed reviews (4yrs, $41 million) before shooting 5-6 from 3 and scoring 27 Sunday afternoon.  Derozan signing for 4yrs, $40 million left many scratching their heads, and Jennings and Tyreke Evans highlight the lackluster group that will play this season to get paid as a restricted free agent in the off-season.  

Again, that's the general tenor of what I gather from people that care about this type of thing.  The only minor quibble I have with that is Curry's contract.  He did play in 80 and 74 games in his first two seasons before only playing in 26 last year.  When he's on the court, there is no doubt Curry is worth the $11 million a year he is getting, but time is going to tell about his ankles.   I don't see the downside of letting Curry prove his durability during the season and then maybe having to pay him a bit more in the off-season, IF he stays healthy.

Doomed

 

- The national NBA discussion has also been dominated by sky-is-falling reactions to the early season struggles of teams hoping to contend for a title.  The Lakers have stolen most headlines, while the Thunder and Russell Westbrook had no place to hide on a rare 1-game Thursday night, and the Celtics have been able to hide at home against Milwaukee and at Washington in games that most people never saw. 

 The Heat, Lakers, and Celtics are all in the bottom five in Defensive Rating,  (#smallsamplesizetheater) or points allowed per 100 possessions.  For the Heat, a matchup against what may end up being a pretty good Amare-less Knicks offense and the enigmatic Nuggets have skewed these numbers.  For the Lakers and Celtics, they can use the "too many new faces" and "it's early" cards.  Both have to be better though.