The NBA is going to finish up its first weekend slate of
games tonight and already so much has happened. Obviously, on November 4th, everything written and said about the NBA has to include the
caveat "it's way too early", but at what point is it alright to make
judgments? These games count as
well. We haven't "learned"
anything definittive about any of these teams yet, but we can certainly start to
formulate theories and make observations.
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| via urban_data on Flickr |
The Rockets are fun to watch
- I was not high on the Rockets this year
considering their amount of inexperience.
The James Harden trade happened last weekend and all of a sudden there
was a reason to watch this team. After
his 37 point, 12 assist debut on Wednesday night, the Rockets damn near became
appointment viewing.
Omer Asik setting devastating picks for Harden and Lin in
this heavy pick and roll and push the pace offense is going to be
exciting. If there were only a few
shooters surrounding these two dynamic playmakers than this would probably be
an elite level offense. Beside Lin and Harden
the Rockets are 13-54 (24%) from the three point line. Patrick Patterson and Marcus Morris are
significant contributors to that. If
ever a team needed a stretch four. So
expect a lot of missed three's in the half court set when Lin and Harden don't
get to the basket, but in transition this team is fantastic and keeping Harden
away from the hoop will be difficult.
Through 3 games Harden has already taken 31 shots at the basket or
inside the restricted circle and that's not including shots he was fouled on
(33FTA already).
Asik has terrible hands but will frustrate opposing big men
and rebound, but we already knew that.
Twitter Explosion in Milwaukee
- Saturday night, when I finished at work I checked in on
Twitter to see what was happening. The Cavs-Bucks
game was drawing to a close and Kyrie and Jennings were obviously getting
love. A league pass game if there ever
was one, turned out to have one of the most exciting finishes of the
night. Kyrie has done nothing to quell
the high expectations thus far, but what really caught my eye in the box score
was Brandon Jennings.
Unfortunately, I watched the Bucks-Celtics game from Friday
night as well as he arguably outplayed Rajon Rondo. #Smallsamplesizetheater, Brandon Jennings is
averaging 13 assists per game. A career
5.5 APG player who has only had double digit assists 13 times in 209 starts
before this season. It's obviously
unsustainable, but what if Jennings replaces three ill-advised long jumpers
with 3 assists on a per game basis? Is
that really an unrealistic projection?
We all assumed that his contract season would mean he'd be gunning for
scoring totals, but what if he improves his game in other areas? Wouldn't that still mean a bigger
paycheck? Here is the "it's way too
early" caveat, but it's something to keep an eye on moving forward.
Contract Extensions
-
The general narrative is that Harden (5 yrs, $80 million) is a worthy
building block for Houston. Denver and
Golden State were smart to extend Lawson (4yrs, $48 million) and Curry (4yrs,$44 million). Taj Gibson was a bit overpaid (4yrs, $38 million), but necessary
for the Bulls after Asik left. Jrue Holiday
received mixed reviews (4yrs, $41 million) before shooting 5-6 from 3 and
scoring 27 Sunday afternoon. Derozan
signing for 4yrs, $40 million left many scratching their heads, and Jennings
and Tyreke Evans highlight the lackluster group that will play this season to
get paid as a restricted free agent in the off-season.
Again, that's the general tenor of what I gather from people
that care about this type of thing. The
only minor quibble I have with that is Curry's contract. He did play in 80 and 74 games in his first
two seasons before only playing in 26 last year. When he's on the court, there is no doubt
Curry is worth the $11 million a year he is getting, but time is going to tell
about his ankles. I don't see the
downside of letting Curry prove his durability during the season and then maybe
having to pay him a bit more in the off-season, IF he stays healthy.
Doomed
- The national NBA discussion has also been dominated by
sky-is-falling reactions to the early season struggles of teams hoping to
contend for a title. The Lakers have
stolen most headlines, while the Thunder and Russell Westbrook had no place to
hide on a rare 1-game Thursday night, and the Celtics have been able to hide at
home against Milwaukee and at Washington in games that most people never
saw.
The Heat, Lakers, and Celtics are
all in the bottom five in Defensive Rating, (#smallsamplesizetheater) or points allowed
per 100 possessions. For the Heat, a
matchup against what may end up being a pretty good Amare-less Knicks offense
and the enigmatic Nuggets have skewed these numbers. For the Lakers and Celtics, they can use the
"too many new faces" and "it's early" cards. Both have to be better though.
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