The Perfect Storm

In honor of Sandy the Frankencane, here are five perfect storm scenarios that must occur in order to prevent Lebron and the Heat from repeating.

1. Luck of the Irish.

                Boston fans have high expectations for this team.  That was not the case last year, or the year before.  Rondo is expected to shoot the ball well, start making free throws and finishing at the rim, and recapture the on-the-ball defensive acumen we assumed he had.  The story is already written.  He is the new leader of this team.  So when things go well he will get the credit, but if this team continues to languish in the doldrums of the league offensively than he will also get the blame.  You know, unless Celtics fans have Darko and Jeff Green to blame.  

                That's not even the Celtics biggest concern though.  The concerns are as they always were, last year, and the year before.  This team has to stay healthy.  Pierce, Rondo, their so-called "depth" could all be undone by injury.  Garnett is paramount.   He is the defensive anchor, the post presence, the soul of this team.  His resurgence last season was shocking even to those who watched him closely and this year that level of play is expected.  Expectations are not prophecy.  How fun would one more Celtics-Lakers finals be though.

2. The Old Guard

                The Spurs are still an afterthought of the Thunder and the Lakers.  The easy reason is because they are old.  The real reason is because they can't defend the paint.  But this is a team that won 20 in a row last year as they rested starters down the stretch and blew through the first two (and a half) rounds of the playoffs.  They are relying heavily on Kwahi Leonard's development as well as Boris Diaw and Splitter to a lesser extent.  They are also hoping that their insane offensive efficiency can make up for their lack of interior defense.  Health will also be an issue.  Although Pop has supported the decrease in Duncan and Ginobili's usage with a deeper team and different offensive strategy, their health as well as Parker's is still essential.  They might need the Thunder to really stumble without Harden, and an injury in LA and Miami to be a serious challenger.

3. Cutting Ties

                I don't blame James Harden one bit.  If he wanted the extra $24 million guaranteed.  If he wanted to start and not be the "third wheel'.  If he didn't believe Presti would turn around and trade him less than a week before the season.  In any of those circumstances, I don't blame him.  As others have pointed out, that championship is not guaranteed.  Now will he second guess himself in February or in May and June?  That is possible.  But to get on a 23 year old kid for making as much money as he can while he can is ludicrous.  

                As for the Thunder, if they can get 75-80% of Harden offensively out of Martin and can rely on the individual improvement of Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, and Maynor than this is still a challenger.  Don't count the Thunder out yet.

4. Shiny New Things

              

                How spoiled are Los Angeles basketball fans that after a decade including multiple championships they are gifted the most exciting young superstar since Lebron and when the luster starts to fade the basketball heavens (or David Stern?  I kid, I kid) present them with a forgotten MVP candidate.  Do we all remember that Dwight has missed a total of 19 games in his career?  I think he'll be alright.  After years of watching him play with Jameer Nelson we all wondered what it would be like if Dwight played with a real point guard.  Did this really just happen?  

                If Dwight Howard is a significant upgrade to Andrew Bynum (he is) and is playing with one of the best passing big men in the game and one of the smartest point guards in the game than the Lakers have a chance to compete.  These four on the court at once seems unfair.  Who can we complain to about this?  Well at least the Lakers bench is terrible.

5. Well-Oiled Machine

               

                The last team to stand in the way of Miami is, well, the Miami Heat.  Even if these four previous teams a lucky enough to stay healthy and have their new and young players meet expectations they will probably still need some help from Miami in order to win a title.  The scary thing is that it looks like Lebron is locked in and the pressure is lifted.  That means that teams can't count on Miami mentally faltering.  Not only has Lebron decided to play the type of basketball us overcritical fans have longed for him to, he broke through the glass ceiling in that Game 6 'fuck you' performance he dropped on Boston.  

                Their opponents only hope will be in the physical.  Can Lebron follow the deep playoff run with Olympic Basketball and then another 100 game campaign to the top of the mountain again?  Maybe more relevantly, can Dwayne Wade and Bosh be healthy for another long postseason?  How bad are Ray's ankles?   Will Mike Miller crack in half?  Health is not a given and therefore neither is Lebron's second championship.

        

An Exercise in Brevity

Every year I get overwhelmed with the thought of previewing each NBA team.  This year, I decided to keep it short.  I used bovada's NBA team prop bet lines (beside Minnesota and Dallas) to (briefly) break down each team. What better place for that than on Twitter?  To make it easier for any potential readers, here they are all in one place.

#NBAOver/Unders #Hawks  42.5 wins.  They'll be better than we think. A full season for Horford. Josh Smith in a contract year.  Over.

#NBAOver/Unders #Celtics 50.5 wins. Very deep and Rondo is primed for a big year. KG's health is crucial. Will be great at home. Over.

#NBAOver/Unders #Nets 44.5 wins. New city, new stadium, new jerseys.  Strong backcourt will make up for weak frontcourt. Playoff team. Over.

 #NBAOver/Unders #Bobcats 19.5 wins.  MKG has the potential to have a huge positive impact on this team but it won't happen overnight. Under.

 #NBAOver/Unders #Bulls 47.5 wins. Relying heavily on Noah & Deng being healthy.  Bench will struggle. Thibs will have them close, but Under.

#NBAOver/Unders #Cavs 30.5 wins.  Kyrie could get them to this # on his own, but this team is young.  I'll be rooting for them, but Under.

#NBAOver/Unders #Mavs No Line. Dirk's injury has scared Vegas. Getting the surgery out of the way was smart. Still, no Dirk. 43 wins? Under.

#NBAOver/Unders #Nuggets 50.5 wins. It used to take 50 wins to sniff the playoffs in the West.  Who isn't excited about this team? Over.

#NBAOver/Unders #Pistons 31.5 wins. Knight & Monroe = solid core for the future. Drummond's a wildcard. Should improve on the road, over.

#NBAOver/Unders #Warriors 36.5 wins. Curry will not stay healthy.  Bogut might (a good fit with Lee) and they are deeper than usual.  Over.

#NBAOver/Unders #Rockets 30.5 wins. I like the rooks, but lots of pressure on Lin to be a leader after only 25 NBA starts. Under.

#NBAOver/Unders #Pacers 51.5 wins. Essentially the same team that won 42 of 66 games last season. Could that have been their ceiling? Under.

#NBAOver/Unders #Clippers 49.5 wins. Paul and Blake alone get them to 50 wins.  I have a lot of questions about the rest of this team. Over.

#NBAOver/Unders #Lakers 58 wins. I've been waiting his whole career to see Dwight play with a real PG. With Pau throwing lobs as well? Over.

#NBAOver/Unders #Grizzlies 48.5 wins. Pacers of the West.  Only way they improve is if Gay and/or Conley make a leap. 49 is realistic, Over.

#NBAOver/Unders #Heat 60.5 wins. 58 wins in 2011, 46 wins (66 games) last year.  Still the favorite, but they don't need home court.  Under.

 

#NBAOver/Unders #Bucks 36.5 wins. Jennings and Ellis are both playing for a payday, both will be firing.  Bogut's absence will show.  Under.

#NBAOver/Unders #Wolves No Line. Stat guys loved this team, but now Rubio & Love are hurt.  High ceiling, low basement. 48 wins? Under.

#NBAOver/Unders #Hornets 26.5 wins. The ROY is Davis' to lose, and Monty is underrated.  Very little depth and experience though. Under.

#NBAOver/Unders #Knicks 47.5 wins. Amare is hurt already. Blessing in disguise? Or will injuries be a recurring theme for the season? Under.

#NBAOver/Unders #Thunder 60.5 wins. I'm not sure if any team gets 61 wins this year. Durant should be closest comp to Lebron for MVP. Under.

#NBAOver/Unders #Magic 23.5 wins. I cringe thinking about Glen Davis trying to carry this team to victories on a nightly basis.  Under.

#NBAOver/Unders #Sixers 45.5 wins. Bynum has to be healthy and dominate for them to reach 46 wins.  I don't trust him.  Under.

#NBAOver/Unders #Suns 33.5 wins.  Scola, Dragic, Gortat offset the erratic Beasley.  I see them as an entertaining team close to .500. Over.

#NBAOver/Unders #Blazers 33.5 wins. Will rely heavily on Lillard to score & make plays as a rook.  I think Aldrich has a big year.  Over.

#NBAOver/Unders #Kings 30.5 wins. Cousins/Robinson pairing is intriguing, backcourt is a mess.  Likely last chance for Reke in Sac. Under.

#NBAOver/Unders #Spurs 55.5 wins. I expect another efficient reg season from Pop, Parker, Duncan, and the rest.  50 (in 66) last year. Over.

#NBAOver/Unders #Raptors 33.5 wins. I'm excited to watch Lowry, Valaciunas, & they made real strides defensively in 2012. (A hopeful) Over.

#NBAOver/Unders #Jazz 42.5 wins. Really hope they continue to play with pace. Love the youngsters, even Hayward's growing on me. Over.

#NBAOver/Unders #Wizards 27.5 wins. High hopes are being dashed. Wall hurt, Nene hurt.  Beal could shine in the meantime.  Under.

What to Expect Out of Kyrie Irving

                Last season most basketball fans had a belief that John Wall was ready to take a step forward in his second season.  It was believed that he had relied mostly on his world class speed to be effective and with one full season under his belt it was time to build on his game.  Many were disappointed that this didn't happen.  By any other standards, a young point guard averaging 16.3 PPG and 8.0 APGwould be considered a success.  For Wall though, that was hardly an improvement from his 16.4 PPG and 8.3 APG in his rookie season.  Also, his shooting percentage didn't improve much (40% in rookie year, 42% in second) and his team had to rattle off a six game winning streak to close the season with 20 wins (46 losses).  

                This situation reminds me of Kyrie Irving and it caused me to stop and wonder for a moment.  Are our expectations simply too high for Kyrie after one season?  SLAMMagazine already has him rated as the 17th best player in the league and I've read and heard people claiming he could finish the season a top 10 player in this league (!?).  That's all for a player who has yet to make an All-Star team.  We are all assuming Kyrie is going to take another large step forward, but as we saw with John Wall, development isn't always linear.

                Another example of a young guard that seemed to take the league by storm and then failed to live up to our expectations of improvement is Tyreke Evans.  Tyreke was the first rookie since Lebron James to average 20, 5, and 5.  Today, that seems like a long time ago because in his second season Tyreke was hobbled by injuries and regressed to average 17.8 PPG on 41% shooting.  The league had learned how to guard Tyreke: keep him away from the basket at all cost.  Now ,entering his fourth season, he has yet to make the necessary adjustments to his game.

                One could also make an argument that other star guards Rondo, Westbrook, and Rose all made their big improvements in their third seasons, not in their second.  So there is a track record here of second year guards not making the improvements that we all expect them to make.  We also have to take into account the surrounding cast of characters.  For John Wall, that team was lacking so much direction that almost the entire roster has been turned over around Wall in only one year.  That has to be a concern for Kyrie going into this season.  A healthy Varejao will help, but there's not much else to speak of on this roster besides the youngsters.  Waiters, Zeller, and Thompson are still very early in their development.  

                There are two significant differences between Irving's rookie season and that of the other guards that failed to live up to expectations.  The first is Byron Scott's plan to limit his minutes even after it was apparent he was the best player on this team.  Scott had the luxury of a veteran guard in Ramon Sessions for much of last season and eased Kyrie in minutes-wise.  Kyrie averaged only 30 mpg last year while Tyreke and Wall both averaged 37mpg in their rookie campaigns.  Kyrie will be on the floor more this season and that bump in minutes could get him to 20 PPG and 6-7 APG alone.

                The other glaring difference between Kyrie and the Wall and Tyreke is his shooting numbers.  Kyrie shot 47% from the field while Tyreke and Wall settled just over 40% and Kyrie even shot practically 40% from the 3-point line.  Not only compared to Tyreke and Wall, but also Rondo, Rose, and Westbrook, Kyrie is clearly a much better shooter than them all at that stage in their careers.  We expected Tyreke and Wall to improve their shooting, but when it didn't happen for either, they seemed to still be the same player they were as rookies.  This could work for or against Kyrie.  Kyrie had the 5th highest True Shooting % in the league among PG's who played 30 minutes or more. It's his shooting ability that really differentiates him from many others.   It's hard to imagine a scenario where Kyrie shoots the ball better this year than he did last year.  On the other hand, it's what makes him very different from many of the young guards that have come into the league lately.  

                In fact, it's really difficult to find a player similar to Kyrie.  When it comes to pure numbers though, the one player that I find most similar to Kyrie is Tony Parker.  In their rookie seasons both players averaged 18 PPG and 5 APG.  Surprisingly enough, Parker out shot Kyrie from the field (52%-47%) and matched Kyrie at 40% from 3 (it's worth noting that Kyrie took many more 3's than Parker in his rookie year).  Again, Kyrie's outside shooting ability separates him from Parker but both players are great finishers at the hoop and elite paint scorers for their position.  Parker in his second season?  He made almost inconsequential improvements in most raw numbers and saw his PER fall just a bit.

                So, given all of that, are expectations too high?  Obviously, it will be about more than the numbers.  If Cleveland is winning games than that will help.  His defense and passing are areas where there is room for improvement, and maintaining his shooting numbers is invaluable.  Continuing to close games in the habitual way he did last season will help as well.  Finish and win games, improve his passing and defense, and shoot the ball at an elite level?  That's all?  No pressure Kyrie.

An NBA Playoffs without the Dallas Mavs?

Last Thursday Dwain Price of the Star-Telegram reported on Dirk Nowitzki's knee.  Much like at the start of last season, Dirk has been having swelling in the knee.  Dirk even mentioned arthroscopic surgery should the swelling not improve.

After the game on Monday night, Delonte West was suspended for apparently blowing up in the locker room post game.  We all know Delonte's struggles, and it seems like the Mavs have worked the issue out and will "have open arms for him," according to O.J. Mayo.

Still, I can't help but wonder already whether Dallas will be able to extend their 12 season streak of playoff appearances, especially with hungry teams like Minnesota, Utah, and Golden State nipping at their heals.

Dirk had similar concerns with his knee at the start of last season and was able to make it through the whole year.  However, this year, he is one year older and he's coming off a full season of "playing through" that injury.  I would not be surprised to see Dirk go down at some point this season and it pains me to say that because he is an offensive virtuoso when right.

If Dirk goes down, then who is the backbone, mentally or physically, of this team?  It becomes an odd collection of aging vets, rookies, and cast offs, most of which do not specialize in defense.  The one constant this team will have is Rick Carlisle and he is really the Mavs only hope.

The way I see it, the 2012-13 Mavs season will play out one of two ways: either Rick Carlisle is in the running for another Coach of the Year award, or things could get really ugly for a perennial playoff team.

How the Cavaliers Dodged a Bullet

For a brief period during the summer there was chatter that the Cleveland Cavaliers were going to throw their hat in the ring in order to facilitate Dwight Howard's escape from Orlando and reap one 7'0, 285lb benefit.  Many NBA fans applauded the deal from Cleveland's perspective, but I feel like Cleveland may have dodged a bullet when they pulled out of that deal and here is why.

First of all, I want to acknowledge that I am less than excited about Andrew Bynum as a player compared to most NBA fans.  There is no doubt that his size allows him to dominate the paint defensively and he has improved his offensive post moves dramatically.  He's also a terrific rebounder; a traditional center in every sense of the word.  He does have his weaknesses though.

For starters he has had arthroscopic surgery on his left knee in May of 2008, his right knee was operated on in 2010, and although recent reports about his health are likely overblown, he did just have experimental Orthokine therapy earlier this month.  He is carrying an extremely large frame, and I would be skeptical to invest long term in him given he has missed 130 out of 394 games in his seven year career.

The other concern that floats around Bynum is his character.  We all remember this horrific foul on J.J. Barea, but there are plenty of other examples.  In Philadelphia, and hypothetically in Cleveland, Bynum would not have the veteran presence of guys like Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol to learn from.  Instead, in these situations, Bynum would and will be looked to as a leader to even younger players than himself.  That's a scary proposition.

Bynum has limitations on the floor as well.  A Lakers blogger points out that Bynum was rarely asked to set screens in the triangle offense and it's a skill that he has yet to perfect.  Also, Bynum will be facing many more double teams without players like Pau and Kobe to draw attention and he is not very comfortable passing out of double teams at this point in his career.  His assist rate is 7th worst in the league among players playing 30 minutes a game.  Lastly, although Bynum is a clear defensive force in the paint, he will struggle to guard centers that can stretch the floor, espcially in pick and pop situations.  I imagine he will really struggle against the Rondo-Garnett duo he will see often in this division.

I don't want this to become an anti-Bynum rant.  I've stated that I tend to value Bynum less than many NBA fans but I certainly will concede that he is likely the second best center in the league.  His PER numbers are very strong, and he is certainly a valuable player when on the court.  My argument here rather, is that the Cavaliers might even be lucky to have not dealt for him.

If the Cavs did make this deal over the summer than their contributions would have centered around their stock pile of draft picks, among them a top 13 protected 2013 first round pick from the Kings.  The one major issue with this trade is that if Bynum went to Cleveland, there is no guarantee he would sign an extension there after this season, and that would leave the Cavs without Bynum and their future picks.

If Bynum did sign an extension, than I'm not sure that would be a positive either.  Bynum already makes upward of $16 million for this season.  His extension would have a base salary of $17,296,652 or 105% of his current salary and would likely increase for the next 4 or 5 seasons.  Would you want to pay a minimum of $70 million over the next 4 years for a 285lb center with a history of knee injuries? 

Anderson Varejao may have also been a part of this deal.  Instead he will play one of two roles on this team moving forward.  He will either be a defensive anchor and veteran presence on a young team that struggled mightily without him most of last season, or he will be a valuable trade piece.  The Cavs will also have cap space and they have a recent history of dealing valuable veterans and acquiring temporary salary in order to acquire assets.  They used the Clippers first round pick (they received for paying Baron Davis and sending Mo Williams to LA) on their future star Kyrie Irving . 

The Cavs can afford to take on some salary this year but will also have plenty of cap room for a max player next season.  They are in a perfect position to patiently evaluate their current crop of young players (Tristan Thompson, Dion Waiters, Tyler Zeller) and have the flexibility and assets to move in almost any direction either later this year or in the off-season.  Had they made the Andrew Bynum move they would have essentially already pushed all their chips in.  That's a move that makes more sense for a playoff team that may have already hit its ceiling like Philadelphia.  The Cavaliers would be wise to learn from and mimic the Thunder model of acquiring and developing young talent before filling in the holes with veteran role players.

Derrick Rose: Comeback or Sit Out?

Tim Hardaway is outspoken in his belief that Derrick Rose should sit out this season and allow himself to heal from the ACL tear that ended the Bulls title hopes on April 29th of last year.  This isn't the case of some random talking head giving medical advice to a player with no knowledge of the situation.  Tim Hardaway had this same injury, a torn ACL from a similar non-contact play, towards the end of an All-Star worthy 1992-93 campaign.  He sat out the entire 93-94 season and returned the following year not quite at All-Star level but with very similar numbers. 

There have been significant changes in how this injury is treated since then.  Hardaway has acknowledged that at the time he was put into a cast post-surgery and was unable to work out for weeks after the surgery.  Today, the approach is much different.  There are even pre-surgery exercises that are done to keep the surrounding muscles strong and rehab involves extensive low-impact exercise almost immediately after surgery.  It's a much different (and viewed as more successful) treatment than Hardaway underwent.  

For the Chicago Bulls, their title hopes depend squarely on the solid shoulders of Derrick Rose.  It is certainly up for debate how good the Bulls can be without him this year.  They managed to have a very successful season last year with Rose in and out of the lineup all season long, but their status as a title contender is certainly hinged on the return of Rose. 

There is another freak athlete in the sports world who suffered a similar injury to Rose that may be a fair comparison.  Adrian Peterson tore his ACL and also suffered damage to his MCL on Christmas Eve of last year.  His rehab was a story throughout the off-season.  He was constantly ahead of schedule and he was remarkably able to start in Week 1, just nine months after his December 30th surgery.  From what I can gather an ACL tear with structural damage to the MCL is treated the same way as an ACL tear is, the surgery is the same (it is assumed that the MCL will heal on its own while the ACL is rested and rehabbed), and the recovery time is the same.

It is worth noting that for every individual the recovery period from ACL reconstruction surgery (both Peterson and Rose had this procedure) is different.  The window is usually 8-10 months, which is in line for Peterson's nine month recovery, however that is assuming no setbacks and it is impossible to measure if the performance pre- and post- injury is at the same level.  I wouldn't argue that Peterson has been playing at the same level as before his injury, but he has been effective, been hit, and has been impactful for the 4-1 Minnesota Vikings. 

Rose (24) is younger than Peterson (27), similar in size (Rose is 6'3, 190 lbs; Peterson is 6'2, 217 lbs), and I think it's safe to say that both are remarkable athletes in their respective sports.  Rose had his surgery on May 12th, and conservatively projecting 10 months for his recovery would place his return around the middle of March, just in time for the playoff push.  I don't think it's a stretch to compare these two athletes and expect Rose to return late this season, but I also don't think he will be the exact same Derrick Rose that we remember immediately.

Just to give credit where credit is due, Stephania Bell is a great resource for information about specific injuries including Rose's.