Genetically Engineering an NBA Front Line

via tolomea from Flickr

 The Bucks are the perpetual mediocre team in the NBA.  Every other city's nightmare scenario (year after year after year of late lottery picks), seems to be the Bucks rallying cry.  Their truehoop network blog, Bucksketball, uses the slogan, "8th seed or bust".  The logical move for the Bucks front office to achieve this goal of basketball mediocrity would be to surround their two young volume 

 shooters with players who will theoretically rebound and defend. 

Entering this season, I viewed the Milwaukee Bucks front line as a curiosity.  It was a collection of assorted lanky athletes.  They are almost as long as the alien team from Space Jam. Engineers would create these anatomies for a hypothetical basketball player.  A redwood forest to guard the basket and maybe obscure the fans' view of what might be some ugly offensive basketball.  No doubt Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings could score, but they both needed to score and shoot in bulk.  And so John Henson was added to this roster in the draft as if the Bucks were collecting gangly PF/C types. 

After 12 games, this Bucks front line is even more confusing.  The one player that seemed to be a lock for big minutes and contributions was the freshly paid Turkish sensation Ersan Ilyasova.  Ersan averaged 13 and almost 9 last season with 19 double doubles and some explosive rebounding performances.  It earned him his pay check, but this year he has been just plain bad.  He's only scored in double figures four times (more than 11 only once) and has one double digit rebound game.

There is also Larry Sanders.  After five games or so I started checking Milwaukee box scores to see how Sanders was doing.  He started the year in double figures scoring in the five games in a row, an exploit that seemed as unlikely as Milwaukee's championship aspirations.  He also had two double doubles over that time, before seeing his minutes dwindle as the season has progressed. 

Then, there was the 17 point, 18 rebound flare-up that John Henson had against Miami in the only game this season he saw more than fifteen minutes.  Which he followed up with a stat less forgettable night where he played one minutes against Charlotte. 

Add to the mix Samuel Dalembert, Ekpe Udoh, and even Tobias Harris and it's hard to figure out what the Bucks have on that front line.  I think Scott Skiles is thinking the same thing considering the varying amounts of minutes these guys have all seen already this season.  Typically a slow paced- defensive team under Skiles, the Bucks are currently playing at the fastest pace and are 17th in defensive efficiency (a stat their mediocre-loving fans must love).  There is some evidence that their collection of length has been effective.  They are 6th in the league in blocks,  lead the league in charges by an extremely high margin, and are tops in defensive plays (blocks+charges+steals) according to Hoopdata.  They are 21st in FG% at the rim but are 3rd in shots attempts allowed at the rim indicating their length is deterring penetration.  They also are able to force drivers to take difficult shots a bit further out then they would like holding teams to 27.8% shooting from 3-9 feet.  They rank 2nd in that category below Houston and just above the Lakers who have two top rim protectors of their own. 

So there is a method to their madness, I suppose, although the Bucks were murdered on the glass against the Bulls on Saturday night.  They are 7-5 but haven't beaten many good teams (PHI, WAS, CHI, CLE, IND, NO, and BOS who can lose on any given night against anyone).  There are a few oddities about this team though.  As I mentioned they are playing at the fastest pace in the league and are forcing turnovers at a rate that is 5th in the league.  That seems to indicate their guards are playing defense and pushing the ball.  What really makes me scratch my head though is that this team is 3rd in the league in assists behind two of the best passing teams there are: the Celtics and the Spurs.

As far as the eye test goes, it seems to me that Udoh and Sanders are their most effective defensive players.  Ersan is obviously their most effective offensive big despite his early season struggles.  Henson is still so young, and Dalembert just seems repetitive on this roster.  Their five man unit numbers from 82games seem to support this.  Their two strikingly efficient defensive units with more than 30 minutes played include both Udoh and Sanders on the floor together.  Their best offensive units include Ellis and Jennings playing with Dunleavy and/or Ilyasova.  

This isn't groundbreaking or anything, but it does support my own preconceived notions of these players.  It is likely that Skiles will continue to juggle his lineups on the front line until he finds something he likes.  The thing is, it may take most of the season for anyone of these guys to emerge and by that time Milwaukee will be right back where they started: 8th seed or bust.