The Perfect Storm

In honor of Sandy the Frankencane, here are five perfect storm scenarios that must occur in order to prevent Lebron and the Heat from repeating.

1. Luck of the Irish.

                Boston fans have high expectations for this team.  That was not the case last year, or the year before.  Rondo is expected to shoot the ball well, start making free throws and finishing at the rim, and recapture the on-the-ball defensive acumen we assumed he had.  The story is already written.  He is the new leader of this team.  So when things go well he will get the credit, but if this team continues to languish in the doldrums of the league offensively than he will also get the blame.  You know, unless Celtics fans have Darko and Jeff Green to blame.  

                That's not even the Celtics biggest concern though.  The concerns are as they always were, last year, and the year before.  This team has to stay healthy.  Pierce, Rondo, their so-called "depth" could all be undone by injury.  Garnett is paramount.   He is the defensive anchor, the post presence, the soul of this team.  His resurgence last season was shocking even to those who watched him closely and this year that level of play is expected.  Expectations are not prophecy.  How fun would one more Celtics-Lakers finals be though.

2. The Old Guard

                The Spurs are still an afterthought of the Thunder and the Lakers.  The easy reason is because they are old.  The real reason is because they can't defend the paint.  But this is a team that won 20 in a row last year as they rested starters down the stretch and blew through the first two (and a half) rounds of the playoffs.  They are relying heavily on Kwahi Leonard's development as well as Boris Diaw and Splitter to a lesser extent.  They are also hoping that their insane offensive efficiency can make up for their lack of interior defense.  Health will also be an issue.  Although Pop has supported the decrease in Duncan and Ginobili's usage with a deeper team and different offensive strategy, their health as well as Parker's is still essential.  They might need the Thunder to really stumble without Harden, and an injury in LA and Miami to be a serious challenger.

3. Cutting Ties

                I don't blame James Harden one bit.  If he wanted the extra $24 million guaranteed.  If he wanted to start and not be the "third wheel'.  If he didn't believe Presti would turn around and trade him less than a week before the season.  In any of those circumstances, I don't blame him.  As others have pointed out, that championship is not guaranteed.  Now will he second guess himself in February or in May and June?  That is possible.  But to get on a 23 year old kid for making as much money as he can while he can is ludicrous.  

                As for the Thunder, if they can get 75-80% of Harden offensively out of Martin and can rely on the individual improvement of Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, and Maynor than this is still a challenger.  Don't count the Thunder out yet.

4. Shiny New Things

              

                How spoiled are Los Angeles basketball fans that after a decade including multiple championships they are gifted the most exciting young superstar since Lebron and when the luster starts to fade the basketball heavens (or David Stern?  I kid, I kid) present them with a forgotten MVP candidate.  Do we all remember that Dwight has missed a total of 19 games in his career?  I think he'll be alright.  After years of watching him play with Jameer Nelson we all wondered what it would be like if Dwight played with a real point guard.  Did this really just happen?  

                If Dwight Howard is a significant upgrade to Andrew Bynum (he is) and is playing with one of the best passing big men in the game and one of the smartest point guards in the game than the Lakers have a chance to compete.  These four on the court at once seems unfair.  Who can we complain to about this?  Well at least the Lakers bench is terrible.

5. Well-Oiled Machine

               

                The last team to stand in the way of Miami is, well, the Miami Heat.  Even if these four previous teams a lucky enough to stay healthy and have their new and young players meet expectations they will probably still need some help from Miami in order to win a title.  The scary thing is that it looks like Lebron is locked in and the pressure is lifted.  That means that teams can't count on Miami mentally faltering.  Not only has Lebron decided to play the type of basketball us overcritical fans have longed for him to, he broke through the glass ceiling in that Game 6 'fuck you' performance he dropped on Boston.  

                Their opponents only hope will be in the physical.  Can Lebron follow the deep playoff run with Olympic Basketball and then another 100 game campaign to the top of the mountain again?  Maybe more relevantly, can Dwayne Wade and Bosh be healthy for another long postseason?  How bad are Ray's ankles?   Will Mike Miller crack in half?  Health is not a given and therefore neither is Lebron's second championship.